无数旅客经历过飞机遭遇湍流时的焦虑：双眼紧闭，双手死死抓住扶手，准备迎接过山车的到来。
Countless passengers have experienced the anxiety of encountering turbulence on a flight: eyes tightly shut, hands gripping the armrests, bracing for a roller coaster ride.
湍流可能会很强烈，并在飞行中造成伤害。根据美国联邦航空管理局的数据，从2009年到2022年，在美国注册的飞机上有163名乘客和机组人员因湍流而严重受伤。
Turbulence can be intense and cause injuries during flights. According to data from the Federal Aviation Administration, 163 passengers and crew members were seriously injured due to turbulence on U.S.-registered aircraft between 2009 and 2022.
虽然死亡极为罕见，但确实会发生。周二，一架从伦敦飞往新加坡的飞机遇到严重湍流，几分钟内骤降约1800米，一名73岁男子死亡。新加坡航空公司在声明中表示，除此之外还有18人入院，另有12人因伤接受了治疗。
While deaths are extremely rare, they do occur. On Tuesday, a flight from London to Singapore encountered severe turbulence, dropping approximately 1,800 meters in a matter of minutes, resulting in the death of a 73-year-old man. Singapore Airlines stated in a release that 18 people were hospitalized and an additional 12 received treatment for injuries.
过去几年还有一些事故也曾造成数十名乘客受伤。2023年3月，一架从得克萨斯州飞往法兰克福的汉莎航空航班上，七名乘客在飞机遇到严重湍流后受轻伤住院。2022年12月，夏威夷航空公司一架从凤凰城飞往檀香山的航班在着陆前不久遇到恶劣气流，造成大约24人受伤，其中包括一名婴儿。
There have been other incidents in recent years that have injured dozens of passengers. In March 2023, seven passengers were hospitalized with minor injuries after a Lufthansa flight from Texas to Frankfurt encountered severe turbulence. In December 2022, about 24 people, including an infant, were injured when a Hawaiian Airlines flight from Phoenix to Honolulu hit rough air shortly before landing.
最近报告的事件让人们怀疑：湍流是否变得越来越频繁和激烈。
Recent reported incidents have led people to wonder: Is turbulence becoming more frequent and intense?
我们采访了一些专家，了解更多关于这种难以预测的天气现象的信息。他们的说法如下。
We interviewed experts to learn more about this unpredictable weather phenomenon. Here's what they had to say.
什么是湍流？
What is turbulence?
湍流是由风速和风向变化引起的不稳定的空气运动，如急流、雷暴、冷锋或暖锋。湍流的严重程度不一，可导致高度和气流速度的轻微或剧烈变化。
Turbulence is unstable air movement caused by changes in wind speed and direction, such as jet streams, thunderstorms, cold or warm fronts. The severity of turbulence varies, leading to minor or dramatic changes in altitude and airflow speed.
它不仅与恶劣的天气有关，也可能在天空看起来很平静的时候发生。而且肉眼和气象雷达都无法看到。
It's not only associated with severe weather but can also occur when the sky appears calm. Moreover, it's invisible to both the naked eye and weather radar.
湍流有四个等级：轻度、中度、严重和极端。据国家气象局称，极端湍流可能令飞行员失去对飞机的控制，甚至可能对飞机造成结构性损坏。
Turbulence is categorized into four levels: light, moderate, severe, and extreme. According to the National Weather Service, extreme turbulence can cause pilots to lose control of the aircraft and may even result in structural damage to the plane.
湍流在增加吗？如果是，为什么？
Is turbulence increasing? If so, why?
最近的研究表明，湍流正在增加，这种变化是由气候变化引起的，特别是二氧化碳排放的增加影响了气流。
Recent studies suggest that turbulence is increasing, a change attributed to climate change, particularly the increase in carbon dioxide emissions affecting air currents.
英国雷丁大学大气科学教授保罗·威廉姆斯研究湍流已有十多年。
Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, has been studying turbulence for over a decade.
威廉姆斯的研究发现，到本世纪末，在高海拔地区和冬季最常出现的晴空湍流可能会增加两倍。他说，这种类型的湍流，在世界各地的所有飞行高度都在增加。
Williams' research indicates that clear-air turbulence, most common at high altitudes and during winter, could double by the end of this century. He says this type of turbulence is increasing at all flight altitudes worldwide.
他的研究表明，未来几年，我们可能会遇到更加颠簸的航班，这可能会导致更多的乘客和机组人员受伤。
His studies suggest that we may experience bumpier flights in the coming years, potentially leading to more injuries among passengers and crew members.
如何监测和测量湍流？
How is turbulence monitored and measured?
气象学家依靠各种不同的算法、卫星和雷达系统，对冷空气、风速、雷暴和湍流等情况做出详细的航空预报。他们会标明湍流可能发生的地点和时间。
Meteorologists rely on various algorithms, satellite and radar systems to make detailed aviation forecasts for cold air, wind speeds, thunderstorms, and turbulence. They indicate where and when turbulence is likely to occur.
美国国家气象局航空气象中心的气象学家詹妮弗·斯特鲁萨斯称，湍流"绝对是最难预测的情况之一"。
Jennifer Stroozas, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Aviation Weather Center, says turbulence is "absolutely one of the most difficult things to predict."
根据这些预报，以及空中交通管制员的指导，飞行员通过调整高度来避开湍流区域，找到最平稳的飞行路线。这意味着要比预报员预测的湍流高度飞得更高或更低，可能会使用比最初预期更多的燃料，这可能会付出高昂的成本。
Based on these forecasts and guidance from air traffic controllers, pilots adjust altitudes to avoid turbulent areas and find the smoothest flight path. This may mean flying higher or lower than the turbulence heights predicted by forecasters, potentially using more fuel than initially expected, which can be costly.
前美国国家运输安全委员会主席、现于安柏瑞德航空大学新成立的航空安全中心担任负责人的罗伯特·萨姆沃特强调，不可能预防或预测所有的湍流。
Robert Sumwalt, former chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board and now head of the newly established Center for Aviation Safety at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, emphasizes that it's impossible to prevent or predict all turbulence.
"终归会有意想不到的恶劣天气，"萨姆沃特说。"一般来说不会伤到你，也不会把机翼给扯下来。"
"There will always be unexpected bad weather," Sumwalt says. "Generally, it won't hurt you, and it won't tear the wings off."
美国国家气象局的斯特鲁萨斯说，湍流对小型飞机的威胁更大，因为小型飞机更容易受到风速变化的影响。
Stroozas from the National Weather Service says turbulence poses a greater threat to small aircraft because they are more susceptible to changes in wind speed.
有那么危险吗？如何在湍流中保障安全？
Is it really that dangerous? How can you stay safe during turbulence?
飞机的设计可以承受恶劣的条件，很少有飞机因为湍流而造成结构损坏。
Aircraft are designed to withstand harsh conditions, and structural damage due to turbulence is rare.
但湍流会把乘客和机组人员甩来甩去，可能造成骨折和大出血等严重伤害。多位专家强调，在飞行中尽量保持坐姿并系好安全带，是降低风险的最佳方法。
However, turbulence can toss passengers and crew members around, potentially causing serious injuries such as fractures and severe bleeding. Multiple experts emphasize that staying seated and keeping your seatbelt fastened during the flight is the best way to reduce risk.
安柏瑞德航空大学应用航空科学教授托马斯·奎恩说："系好安全带，受伤的可能性就会大大降低。"
Thomas Quinn, a professor of applied aviation sciences at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, says, "If you keep your seatbelt fastened, the chances of injury are greatly reduced."
威廉姆斯说，在严重的湍流中，飞机的垂直运动将超过重力的拉力。
Williams says that in severe turbulence, the vertical motion of the aircraft will exceed the pull of gravity.
"这意味着，如果你没有系安全带，从定义上说，你就会变成一种弹射物，你会被弹出座位，"他说。
"This means that if you're not wearing a seatbelt, by definition, you'll become a projectile and be thrown out of your seat," he says.
湍流造成的死亡虽然极为罕见，但确实会发生。美国国家运输安全委员会的调查显示，上一次在美国航空公司运营的商业航班上有乘客因湍流死亡是在1997年，当时一架从东京飞往檀香山的联合航空公司航班在太平洋上空遭遇了严重湍流。根据调查，该乘客没有系安全带，从座位上飞了起来，头部可能撞到了行李箱。
Deaths caused by turbulence, while extremely rare, do occur. An investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board shows that the last time a passenger died due to turbulence on a commercial flight operated by a U.S. airline was in 1997, when a United Airlines flight from Tokyo to Honolulu encountered severe turbulence over the Pacific. According to the investigation, the passenger was not wearing a seatbelt, was thrown from their seat, and likely hit their head on an overhead bin.
然而，并非所有归因于严重湍流的死亡事件都确实由湍流所导致。2023年3月，一名前白宫助理乘坐一架商务飞机从新罕布什尔州飞往弗吉尼亚州途中受致命伤死亡，最初被认为是严重湍流所导致。然而，国家运输安全委员会的初步调查发现，是飞行员关闭了一个稳定飞机的开关，导致飞机在空中短暂震荡。
However, not all deaths attributed to severe turbulence are actually caused by turbulence. In March 2023, a former White House aide died from fatal injuries while on a business jet flying from New Hampshire to Virginia, initially thought to be due to severe turbulence. However, a preliminary investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board found that the pilot had turned off a switch that stabilizes the plane, causing it to briefly pitch in the air.
放在腿上的婴儿该怎么办？
What about infants held on laps?
两岁以下的儿童可以在飞行中坐在成人的腿上，但许多行业专家认为，这种做法应该被禁止，因为有湍流等危险。
Children under two can sit on an adult's lap during flights, but many industry experts believe this practice should be banned due to dangers such as turbulence.
几十年来，代表19家航空公司约5万名空乘人员的美国空乘协会CWA一直主张，无论年龄大小，每位乘客都应有自己的座位。
For decades, the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA, which represents about 50,000 flight attendants at 19 airlines, has advocated for every passenger, regardless of age, to have their own seat.
该协会主席萨拉·纳尔逊在接受采访时表示，随着最近湍流变得"更加常见"，飞行期间将幼儿妥善安置在儿童安全座椅上的需求变得更加重要。
Sara Nelson, the association's president, said in an interview that as turbulence has become "more common" recently, the need to properly secure infants in child safety seats during flights has become more crucial.
"这可是关系到机舱内可能致命的事件，如果你采取正确的措施来保护自己，死亡是可以避免的，"纳尔逊说。
"This is about potentially fatal events in the cabin that can be prevented if you take the right steps to protect yourself," Nelson said.
美国联邦航空局表示，意外湍流是飞机上儿童受伤的主要原因，该机构提供了各种儿童约束系统的详细信息，以及如何在飞机座椅上正确安装这些系统。其中一些产品同时适用于汽车和飞机。
The Federal Aviation Administration states that unexpected turbulence is the leading cause of chil